The continuing war in Ukraine is having an effect on the supply of commodities, as well as an impact upon inflation around the world.

Despite this state of affairs, a limited supply of farm land for sale appears to have strengthened values in many areas, driven also by an increasing pool of buyers. There continues to be healthy demand from those buyers driven to rollover money for tax purposes, and they certainly seem to lead the market for the big commercial farms and estates.

The average sales prices of arable and pasture farmland reveal healthy increases in values over the last decade. For arable land the prices have increased from £8,800 per acre in 2013 to £10,600 in 2022, and for pasture land from £6,500 per acre to £8,500 respectively.

However, this snapshot hides the very real, and occasionally, sharp fluctuations downward in the years 2016 and 2019. In 2019, arable land values dropped 2% on the previous year, and pasture land values fell to £6,900 per acre,  down 10% on the £7,600 per acre average achieved in 2018.

Going forward into 2023, the initial evidence suggests a slightly increased supply with values holding firm, although there has been very little on the market so far this year.

Buyers will continue to come from those wishing to rollover for tax purposes, and in line with the past two years post the pandemic, lifestyle buyers are expected to continue to show interest in the smaller farms. In addition, amenity buyers will continue to drive the ever present demand for smaller bare agricultural land parcels.

The majority of land available in 2023 is expected to come from smaller to medium sized farms, which are forced to divest themselves of small acreages or part of their holdings to reduce debts and borrowing.

In addition, a decent supply of land will logically come from those retiring and bringing retirement forward as a result of the loans against the farm, coupled with the rising cost of living and inflationary pressures. Whether this happens in 2023 remains to be seen.

In general terms, volumes of supply are expected to increase this year, and to exceed 2022 levels. Fuelling this increase in supply is undoubtedly the reduction is subsidies, whilst energy costs are likely to remain above average. A proportion of sales will take place privately and thus the volume of land sales is difficult to quantify exactly.

Overall, values in 2023 are expect to increase slightly, depending upon location, size, quality and accessibility. It is anticipated that arable land values will increase steadily as a result of unsatisfied demand following a very restricted supply in recent years.

In certain areas, grassland values may remain buoyant as a result of demand from conservationists. Demand for space and investment returns will probably ensure strong values are maintained for amenity and smaller parcels of land.

If you wish to obtain any advice on agricultural land values, contact Richard Greasby on 01285 883740 or richard@butlersherborn.co.uk