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The Cotswolds Residential Market reacts to the Labour victory - Commentary from Sam Butler of Butler Sherborn

5 July 2024
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Sam Butler
By Sam Butler FRICS

Senior Partner

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We now have certainty, and with it we can expect a degree of stability and confidence. For those of us who have lived through a good number of Elections, and experienced the property markets under Labour, we know that property can perform better than some may predict under it’s administration.

Bricks and mortar are traditionally perceived as a good hedge against inflation.

Undoubtedly, there will be initial concerns in respect of increases in SDLT, Capital Gains Tax and Inheritance Tax, and only after The King’s Speech on 17th July should matters become clearer. The new government, despite it’s euphoria, still faces the challenges of it’s predecessor in dealing with the economy, the demands of a failing health service and conflicts abroad.

In the run up to the Election in the Cotswolds, we had seen a flurry of activity as committed buyers decided to get the deals done and with an attitude of 'life goes on'. However, some have chosen to sit on their hands and await the outcome.

Sir Keir inherits a far more healthy economy than Sunak, thanks to Rishi’s and Jeremy Hunt’s intelligent and firm handling of it in the post Truss era. Labour should be acutely conscious of the value of this inheritance, and will be reluctant to implement policies which will adversely impact the progress made. When there is equity in homes, people spend on credit cards for new kitchens, cars and the upgrading of their homes, and in turn employ skilled tradesmen. Or they decide to sell, release the equity and spend it! This is a stealth aspect of any economy about which people choose not to comment. With the residential housing stock across England valued at £7.5 trillion, a 10% increase in value of residential property results in £750 billion in tax free unearned income added to the wealth of the country. The converse is, of course, also true.

We will all be wiser on 17th July, and better able to understand the likely impact of the new administration, but we will have certainty and markets like certainty.

Image Credit and Copyright: Labour Party

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